Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5° × 0.5°) probabilistic risk assessment MG under climate for 40 years (1976–2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes (impacts) vulnerability drought between recent two decades R20 = 1996–2015 previous P20 1976–1995. The quantified as product hazardous vulnerability. defined from Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability expected differences key variables with without conditions. are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, leaf area index) root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated field observations biomass moisture. Results reveal experienced more frequent droughts rapid warming slight drying during aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared P20), resulted reduction water availability grassland particularly northeastern areas (20%–65%). increased 10% over extended areas, northcentral northeast Mongolia. was mainly caused change-induced and, lesser extent, increasing Recent modify grasslands, Mongolia, suggesting these regions need strategic management both adaptation conservation cope impacts.